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April 2020
IMF Outlook: How Commonwealth real GDP in 2020-21 will be impacted by COVID-19
The International Monetary Fund published its 2020-2021 real GDP Outlook (an inflation-adjusted measure of economic growth) for all countries last week, taking into account the impact of COVID-19 on economic activity and assuming the pandemic peaks in the second quarter for most countries. The revised IMF forecast indicates that the economic downturn as a result of COVID-19 will be worse than what the world experienced during the Great Depression in the 1920s or the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-09. Assuming the pandemic recedes in the second half of 2020 and that the policy response is swift and effective, the Commonwealth’s Real GDP is likely to grow by 5.05% in 2021. The chart below displays the IMF’s Real GDP projections for all 54 Commonwealth countries, grouped by region.